Janoo Leads Scott by Eight Points in Final Vermont Governor Poll

A new poll released Monday indicates Amanda Janoo holds an eight-point lead over incumbent Governor Phil Scott in the Vermont gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, found that 51% of likely voters intend to support Janoo, while 43% plan to vote for Scott. Just over 1,200 likely voters participated in the study.

Matt Dickinson, a political science professor at Middlebury College, noted that the numbers suggest Janoo has run an effective campaign against a long-serving incumbent. If the Democrat wins on November 3, it would be the first time a Vermont governor has been defeated since 1962. Dickinson stated that voters appear dissatisfied with the current administration, pointing fingers at Scott despite his high personal approval ratings.

Affordability and high taxes emerged as the top concerns for respondents. These issues have been central to Scott’s platform for years. Dickinson argued that Scott’s extended time in office may be contributing to the gap, as some voters feel these economic problems remain unsolved. However, he acknowledged that Scott still enjoys strong personal favorability among Vermonters.

The poll results vary significantly from other recent surveys. A Vermont Public poll released earlier showed Scott leading by 10 points, with 42% support compared to Janoo’s 32%. A separate survey from State Navigate placed Scott ahead by three points, 49% to 46%. The previous UNH poll from September 24 showed Janoo leading by six points, 49% to 43%.

Dickinson explained that the demographic makeup of the sample affects the outcomes. This specific UNH survey skews younger, and younger voters are disproportionately supporting Janoo. Different assumptions about youth turnout lead to different projections for the final result. He noted that while UNH polls have historically overestimated support for Scott’s opponents in recent races, the methodology may have changed for this election.

Governor Scott has expressed skepticism about the UNH numbers. In a recent interview, he described the polling as flawed, stating that it has never predicted his results correctly in the past. Dickinson countered that while Scott’s criticism has historical basis, the current data might reflect a shift in voter sentiment. The race remains tight, with both campaigns now focused on mobilizing their bases and persuading undecided voters.

The final two weeks of the campaign will test these projections. Both candidates are working to maximize turnout among their supporters. The gap between the two leads remains within the margin of error for many surveys, but the UNH data places the Democrat in the lead as Election Day approaches.