60% of Americans sit in a political middle that researchers say is larger than the extremes

Two friends in their early 50s recently found that their political assumptions about one another were entirely wrong. Shanna Berry, a retired hairdresser and Air Force veteran who supports President Trump, and Alma Ong, a liberal Buddhist who does not like the president, initially avoided discussing the U.S. capture of Venezuela's then-president Nicolas Maduro in January to preserve their bond. When pressed, Berry described the end of the regime as necessary, though she expressed doubt about the legalities and the oil motives behind the move. Ong, who grew up in London and arrived in the United States in the 1990s, responded with surprise. She agreed with every point Berry made, a reaction that highlights a disconnect between perceived and actual political alignment.

Political researchers argue that this specific dynamic is common. Kristin Laurin, a professor of psychology at the University of British Columbia, stated that the exchange between Berry and Ong matches a large body of literature on polarization. Laurin noted that people often avoid political conversation to prevent conflict. This silence leads individuals to overestimate the distance between their own views and those of others. Laurin said the two friends were making assumptions that turned out to be totally wrong, revealing that they actually believed similar things.

Experts point to political elites and social media as primary drivers of the perception gap. Laurin explained that politicians paint opponents as extreme to frighten and energize voters. Social media platforms simultaneously amplify political rage to drive engagement. Laurin asserted that perceived polarization far outstrips the actual polarization. This dynamic creates a feedback loop where extreme voices dominate the discourse, leaving moderate views in the shadows.

Recent events have tested the boundaries of this moderate consensus. In April, former FBI director James Comey was indicted for posting a photo of seashells on a beach. The Department of Justice argued the post constituted a death threat against the president. The indictment drew criticism from Democrats, but it also upset many conservatives. Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law professor at George Washington University Law School, told Fox News that he felt he was in a parallel universe discussing the shell art of Comey. Shortly after the indictment, a group of Republicans and Democrats at a riverside restaurant near the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland sided with Comey and the First Amendment.

Stan Fletcher, a restaurateur in the group who voted for Trump in all three recent elections, expressed his view on the matter. He stated that while Comey has always been an opinionated guy, no one should be indicted for their opinion, ever. Fletcher believes that 95% of America falls under a bell curve of moderates. He argued that the public only hears about the wackos on the left and the wackos on the right, ignoring the vast center.

The Pew Research Center provides data that supports Fletcher's assessment. The non-partisan organization classifies Americans into nine separate groups based on values and attitudes. One of these groups is labeled the Pragmatic and Polite Right. This demographic has the oldest average age and places a high value on civility in politics. Members of this group are conservative on economic issues but more moderate on race and immigration. Within this specific group, 56% are Republicans or Republican-leaning, while 37% are Democrats or Democratic-leaning.

Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, said that looking beneath party labels reveals a lot of variation within parties and a lot of overlap between them. She described this messy political middle as larger than the groups on the ideological right and the ideological left. Pew estimates that this messy middle makes up about 60% of the electorate. In contrast, the groups farthest to the right, which Pew calls the No Apologies Right and the Faith First Conservatives, make up just 21% of the population.

Pew offers a quiz that allows individuals to determine which of the nine groups they belong to. Kiley acknowledged that political division in America is real. However, she maintained that people agree on more than they may think. She summarized the current state of the electorate by noting that the country is highly polarized, but there is also a lot of nuance underneath that.