UNH Poll Shows Janoo Ahead of Scott by Eight Points

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo holds an eight-point lead over incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott in the final poll of the campaign. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center released the Green Mountain State Poll on Sunday, October 27. The online survey collected responses from 1,231 people between October 27 and 31.

Among likely voters, 51 percent said they will or have voted for Janoo. Forty-three percent indicated they will or have voted for Scott. The margin of error for the poll is 2.8 percent. The results include participants who said they are leaning toward a candidate, a category that was not included in previous UNH surveys. Independent candidate Brian Judd received support from 4 percent of participants. One percent supported Freedom and Unity candidate Dean Roy, a high school student. Fewer than one percent said they would vote for Peace and Justice candidate June Goodband.

The survey found that 62 percent of likely voters believe Scott will win the election. Only 25 percent think Janoo will win, while 13 percent are unsure. In terms of personal popularity, 54 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Janoo, the 39-year-old political newcomer. Forty-two percent hold a favorable opinion of the governor.

Party affiliation drives the split in the race. Among likely voters who identify as Democrats, 78 percent support Janoo and 20 percent support Scott. Among Republicans, 85 percent support Scott and 10 percent support Judd. An earlier UNH poll released in late September showed Janoo at 49 percent and Scott at 43 percent. A subsequent Vermont Public poll found Scott up by 10 points, with 16 percent of voters undecided. A State Navigate poll released on October 27 showed Scott with a three-point lead.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democratic challenger Molly Gray leads Republican incumbent John Rodgers. Gray served in the post from 2021 to 2023. The poll shows 63 percent of likely voters will or have voted for Gray, compared with 34 percent for Rodgers. U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) also leads her opponent in the congressional race. Sixty-six percent of likely voters said they will or have voted for Balint, while 31 percent said they will or have voted for Republican nominee Gerald Malloy.

As of Friday morning, nearly 140,000 Vermonters had turned in their ballots, according to the Vermont Secretary of State’s Office. Polls are open on Tuesday until 7 p.m. Both Janoo and Scott are on the road on Monday in a final push before Election Day.