Israeli leaders face 61-seat hurdle after election deadlock

Israeli voters have left the country without a clear path to a new government, creating a political stalemate that will require weeks of negotiations. The final election results give opposition parties more seats than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc. However, neither side can reach the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Gadi Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, leads the opposition. His bloc lacks sufficient seats to govern without the support of predominantly Arab parties. Eisenkot and his allies ruled out this option during the campaign. They argue that the Arab parties’ positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza make joint governance difficult. Some Arab leaders have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or condemn it as a terrorist organization.

Netanyahu faces a similar constraint. His traditional coalition partners do not hold enough seats to return him to power. In the coming days, Israel’s president will consult with all party leaders. The president is not bound to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president will select the candidate most likely to assemble a governing coalition. That candidate has 28 days to secure support from at least 61 lawmakers. The president may grant an extension of up to 14 days.

One possible outcome is a unity government combining Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Israeli and some U.S. media outlets reported that President Trump favors this arrangement. Such a coalition would likely include moderate parties from the center and right. It could facilitate cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities, including Gaza reconstruction and normalization with Saudi Arabia. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. The two leaders would need to resolve questions regarding who serves as prime minister and whether the position rotates.

A second option is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties. Together, these groups would command more than 67 seats. This remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly rejected the idea. The Arab parties could support a minority government from outside the coalition, but that arrangement would contradict campaign promises. A third possibility is another election. Israel’s president has urged leaders to avoid new polls, citing the high turnout of the recent vote. Netanyahu may believe a repeat election works in his favor. He argues that Arab turnout might decline if voters feel excluded from government. Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote may also be less likely to return.

A fourth path involves defections. Netanyahu would need to attract roughly eight lawmakers from outside his bloc. Eisenkot would need approximately 13 defectors if he excludes Arab parties. This scenario appears highly unlikely under current results. Meanwhile, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could advance legislation during the stalemate. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset. They also hope to pass legislation establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas. Allies may also try to reverse legislation that critics say weakened Israel’s democratic institutions.

Military developments could influence these negotiations. In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel must complete its mission against Iran. He described Iran as an existential threat. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use Israel’s security for political needs. A renewed war involving the United States could disrupt the opposition’s legislative moves. It could also increase pressure on Eisenkot to join an emergency unity government. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, noted that Netanyahu has a political incentive to renew fighting while negotiations are underway. He said returning to war would serve Netanyahu’s interests by increasing pressure on Eisenkot to form a unity government.