Netanyahu Bloc Leads Israel Vote But Lacks Knesset Majority

Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc holds a five-seat lead in the Israeli Knesset based on partial election results, but the coalition lacks the majority needed to govern immediately. With 85% of ballots counted, Likud and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies are projected to win 53 of the 120 parliamentary seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and three allied opposition parties are tracking toward 48 seats.

The race remains too close to call as hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots remain uncounted. Between 430,000 and 480,000 votes from soldiers and diplomats are yet to be tallied, a process that could take another day or two. President Isaac Herzog will convene consultations with all factions once the final numbers are confirmed. He will then invite the leader he deems most likely to succeed in forming a government. This procedural step can stretch over several weeks.

Arab-led parties stand to become pivotal in determining the outcome. The United Arab List and the Joint List are on course to win 19 seats, a record for these groups. All but one of the Jewish parties have pledged not to form a governing coalition with them, creating a narrow path for either bloc to reach the 61 seats required for a majority.

Eisenkot, who served as military chief, claimed the public voted for change after initial exit polls suggested his bloc might match or beat Netanyahu. He addressed supporters in Tel Aviv, stating that the coalition of failure had lost trust. "The coalition of failure has lost the people's trust," Eisenkot said. "I will work with my partners to ensure that the people's decision is translated into a Zionist government."

Netanyahu countered from his headquarters in Jerusalem, asserting that his right-wing bloc had secured a significant victory. He argued that relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties endangered the state. "We must put in place a strong right-wing national government," Netanyahu said. "It is forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties."

President Herzog commended the high voter participation in Tuesday’s election. The turnout reached 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades. Herzog called the result a badge of honor for Israeli society. He expects to receive the official results next week and plans to begin discussions with every faction immediately after. "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," Herzog said.

This election was the first held since the Hamas-led attacks of October 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Voters weighed accountability for security failures, the conduct of regional wars, and judicial reforms. The outcome will determine whether Israel continues on its current religious-nationalist trajectory or shifts direction under new leadership.