Ad spending data shows 70 tight House races as midterms approach
Both parties are investing heavily in dozens of districts, with some seeing over $12 million in final days of campaigning.
By Trevor Wilson ·
Advertising data released on Wednesday indicates the 2026 House races are intensifying. An analysis by NPR found 70 districts where both parties are spending at least six figures in their final days of messaging. This spending suggests the contest is not just about preventing a Democratic wave, but about determining the size of that gain.
The financial commitment is heaviest in specific states. Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida are seeing more than $10 million each in spending for toss-up districts. Seven-figure ad buys are also appearing in deep-red areas across Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Campaigns are also directing last-minute resources to districts where Republican-drawn maps might backfire.
Current ratings from the Cook Political Report show Democrats favored in 220 seats. The report lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as potentially competitive but leaning toward the GOP. Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 seat advantage, a lead that appears likely to shift in a midterm environment that historically disfavors the party in power.
Many competitive seats shifted toward Democrats after the 2024 presidential election. This includes districts where voters chose a presidential candidate from one party but a House nominee from the other. These seats are held by Democratic Representatives Adam Gray of California, Nellie Pou of New Jersey, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington. Retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska is also in such a district. AdImpact data shows Republicans have cut ad reservations in all four of these districts recently.
A poll conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist found Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among registered voters. Their lead is 8 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living is the top concern for voters, driven by rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also added to anti-incumbency sentiment.
Mid-decade redistricting has further complicated the map. Following a Supreme Court decision that weakened parts of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans redrew boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats like Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats made similar changes in California. Only Figures and Soto currently sit in districts rated as favoring Republicans.
The most expensive races are Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District, each with over $12 million in planned spending. Other high-spending areas include Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts; New York's 17th; and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd. The 70 districts with six-figure spending from both parties voted for Donald Trump by an average of nine points in 2024. Sixty districts are listed as priorities by both party campaign arms, reflecting the impact of the administration's unpopularity.
Source: WCLK
