Israeli opposition wins majority but faces dilemma

Benjamin Netanyahu faces a continued tenure despite losing his majority in the recent Israeli elections. The vote stripped his far-right coalition of its mandate and gave the opposition a firm lead. However, a pledge by most Jewish opposition parties to avoid governing with Palestinian-led groups creates a path for the prime minister to stay in power. If that pledge holds, Netanyahu could serve another term. At minimum, he may remain caretaker leader for an extended period, potentially leading to another election.

The campaign emphasized a divide between Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Netanyahu portrayed the latter as an internal enemy. Critics argued this strategy helped his support base while complicating coalition negotiations for his rivals. On election night, Netanyahu dismissed the loss of about 10 seats from his 2022 coalition. He claimed the right-wing bloc held a clear majority among the Zionist public. He called for a strong national-right government, noting that the Knesset has shifted further right.

Israeli media focused on the uncertainty rather than the opposition's numerical advantage. The newspaper Israel Hayom ran the headline No Clear Government. Channel 12 published an article titled Road to Unity Government Has Been Paved. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, rejected this framing. He stated that Netanyahu lost and that he knows how to count. Golan called for a government that includes Palestinian citizens, who make up about 20% of the population. He urged Israelis to stop accepting the division between Jewish and Arab votes.

Yali Sobol, a musician, made a similar point in a Facebook post. She wrote that if people stopped being racist, they would discover they had won. Public opinion among opposition voters appears to be moving ahead of their leaders. Eran Halperin, a political psychology researcher, cited a survey taken as polls closed. The data showed a clear majority of opposition voters backed forming a government with the Palestinian-led Ra'am party to remove Netanyahu.

Opposition leaders remained silent on Wednesday. They appear to be weighing their desire to unseat Netanyahu against their previous promises. Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the largest opposition party, has not directly ruled out a partnership with Ra'am. However, he set conditions that make such a coalition politically difficult. Ra'am is an Islamist party that placed a Jewish former police chief in second position on its slate. This move signaled its commitment to working with Jewish Israelis.

Palestinian leaders have been more explicit about their intentions. Yousef Jabareen, head of the larger Joint List, said his party was ready to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government. He added that the change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership. A precedent from three decades ago, when Yitzhak Rabin relied on Palestinian support for a minority government, receives little attention in the current debate.

Many Israelis viewed the vote as an existential choice. Concerns include the erosion of democracy inside the pre-1967 borders and the push for a State Commission of Inquiry into the 7 October attacks. Palestinian citizens turned out in record numbers. They face rising crime, discrimination, and home demolitions while watching relatives endure violence in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

Israel describes itself as a Jewish and democratic state. If Palestinian representatives are kept out of government based on ethnicity, the choice between a Jewish future and a democratic one becomes sharper. Netanyahu's campaign posters often carried the slogan The right or Palestine. This cast the fifth of the population who are Palestinian as an enemy inside Israel's borders. The opposition now holds the seats to form a government, but the ethnic composition of that government remains the central point of contention.