640,000 first-time Israeli voters face decisive Tuesday ballot

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, in an election where the votes of young adults may determine the fate of 12 parliamentary seats. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) estimates that 640,000 citizens between the ages of 18 and 22 are eligible to vote. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Analysts suggest their collective decision could swing the balance of power in the 120-member Knesset.

The weight of this new voting bloc is a central theme in current political discourse. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, stated that Israel is a young country with a high birth rate. She noted that if turnout remains high, as recent research indicates, these first-time voters will make a tangible difference in the final tally. The IDI co-sponsored a recent event in a Tel Aviv auditorium with the Yigal Allon Center to engage with this demographic.

Opinion polls suggest strong intent to participate among these young citizens. A May survey by the IDI found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents stated their intention to vote. A separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with another 19% believing they would cast a ballot.

For many young Israelis, the issues driving their vote are personal and immediate. National security and the cost of living ranked as the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab participants in the surveys. Hoffman explained that these young people were in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. She described them as being worried about their future.

Individual voters illustrate the diverse political leanings within this age group. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, is voting to change the future of the country. She plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar, both of which belong to the opposition bloc seeking to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Conversely, Omer Gross, 18, from Jerusalem, will vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. Gross supports Smotrich's policies in the West Bank and believes the country needs a strong, secure government.

Other young voters are focusing on military service and economic relief. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliya, will support the change bloc and wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, cited the cost of tuition, books, food, and housing as his primary reason for voting for the Democrats. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that will close resource gaps in Arab communities and tackle crime. He stated that he is urging his friends to vote and that he will not leave the country regardless of the result.

An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people describe their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% said they would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Mock elections held at high schools showed similar trends, with most students backing Yashar and Beyachad, led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

The election takes place against the backdrop of a political landscape where Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in office since 2009, with a brief break in 2021 and 2022. The opposition "change bloc" aims to end his tenure. The outcome of Tuesday's vote will depend on the participation rate of these 640,000 first-time voters and the specific party preferences of individuals like Chernyvsky, Gross, Shiloh, and Sabeh.